Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 4.689904 5.535009 6.470082 7.578809 8.854809 10.274458 11.970603
2025-06-22 3.390336 4.520703 5.909024 7.727095 10.031160 12.838567 16.501075
2025-06-29 2.546390 3.773403 5.420849 7.765052 10.979722 15.193001 21.084039
2025-07-06 1.972225 3.208500 5.002753 7.744483 11.762927 17.358177 25.637738
2025-07-13 1.730798 3.046590 5.084552 8.386827 13.495108 20.960624 32.514156
2025-07-20 1.469342 2.785983 4.953025 8.659687 14.682256 23.876099 38.684591
2025-07-27 1.276513 2.591834 4.880117 8.989815 15.966120 27.033388 45.493582
2025-08-03 1.073900 2.332957 4.645549 8.999766 16.707789 29.390346 51.252789
2025-08-10 0.870806 2.026106 4.267212 8.689832 16.849073 30.760721 55.518748
2025-08-17 0.696177 1.735254 3.863382 8.261713 16.709122 31.615732 58.967379
2025-08-24 0.585518 1.555090 3.641900 8.138969 17.092892 33.383353 64.091211
2025-08-31 0.499853 1.411332 3.468393 8.080297 17.578620 35.358184 69.720242
2025-09-07 0.461579 1.376382 3.529451 8.527150 19.127422 39.463769 79.620147
2025-09-14 0.401128 1.270997 3.415389 8.585684 19.908082 42.213857 87.285632
2025-09-21 0.346541 1.167168 3.285805 8.589438 20.573409 44.800548 94.859618
2025-09-28 0.298311 1.068089 3.148740 8.553387 21.145026 47.247061 102.354932
2025-10-05 0.289877 1.085948 3.311404 9.250063 23.395794 53.253807 117.273128
2025-10-12 0.264607 1.044471 3.310526 9.545993 24.776039 57.583663 129.158074
2025-10-19 0.244347 1.013987 3.333985 9.905465 26.338300 62.415482 142.401999
2025-10-26 0.214634 0.942454 3.228560 9.916064 27.079678 65.556535 152.383413
2025-11-02 0.178943 0.837774 3.005252 9.577863 26.939912 66.767928 158.402665
2025-11-09 0.145738 0.730507 2.750550 9.110614 26.421049 67.084323 162.520172
2025-11-16 0.125305 0.667195 2.620955 8.976609 26.727326 69.283105 170.873142